BigLaw last year tightened up on summer associate classes, and while the spreading novel coronavirus casts a further pall on the future of these programs, recruiters say some firms may hold steady on hiring from those ranks.
Shrinking summer programs at large law firms were the main drivers behind the average class size falling to 13 in 2019, after holding steady at an average of 14 for the previous three years, according to data released Wednesday by the National Association for Law Placement.
There was also a 3.5% decline in summer associate offers between 2018 and 2019, data showed.
Large law firms were expecting to continue this belt-tightening on summer programs for 2021 classes as they had already feared a potential recession after 10 years of a bull market, according to Michelle Fivel, a recruiter with Major Lindsey Africa. The impact of COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus, adds further uncertainty to future programs.
"Several of the firms even before all of this happened said they were planning on cutting the size of their summer associates," Fivel told Law360 on Friday in response to questions about hiring, before the NALP data was released.
There was better news mixed in with the NALP data, largely that entry-level hiring had remained robust. Even as large law firms had begun tapering off their summer programs, however, the rate of entry-level offers for this pool of candidates had inversely increased from 97% for summer 2018 programs to 98% for summer 2019 programs, according to the NALP.
Recruiters are staying optimistic that firms won't be forced by the coronavirus to cut too deeply into future class sizes. Recruiter Frank D'Amore noted that some firms are anticipating legal work to "come in at a torrid pace" once the economy kick-starts back up, which could have a trickle-down impact on summer associate hiring in some mid-size or small law firms.
"If that were to happen late spring, 2020 — and that may be unduly optimistic — it may open up more summer spots than normal for medium and small firms, if for no other reason than them needing help with research and other types of work done by summer associates," said D'Amore.
Fivel also noted that many BigLaw firms are looking to avoid getting too reactionary to the current economic downturn amid the pandemic when it comes to staffing, in part because firms that cut too deep recruiting-wise in the last recession later had a hard time finding laterals to fill clients' needs when the economy took an upswing. Firms are trying to "hunker down" and "ride it out," she said.
"Hopefully, firms apply that same kind of logic to summer associates," Fivel said.
--Editing by Orlando Lorenzo.
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