How To Use Risk Analysis To Calculate Settlement Value

Law360, New York (February 19, 2014, 12:35 PM EST) -- A recent Law360 Expert Analysis article by Judge Wayne D. Brazil examines the relationship between probability theory and the use of decision analysis as a tool in calculating settlement values of civil cases.[1] It was Judge Brazil’s conclusion that decision analysis should not be used since it leads to “misevaluating cases.” [2] That’s a strong condemnation of a well-established analytical tool, and it merits further examination.

Judge Brazil criticizes decision analysis and probability theory broadly, noting that in his view “the results of decision analysis can be no better than the reliability of the estimates of each component of the formula”...

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